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On October 13, third-quarter energy stocks performed strongly, but the earnings gap within the industry deserves more attention. An Oilprice article published on October 12 said that the three large independent refiners it tracked delivered an average return of more than 52%. Moneta Markets foreign exchange stated that this result shows that the refined product processing segment has gained strong pricing power and cannot simply be attributed to rising crude oil prices.
Refinery profits mainly depend on the difference between feedstock costs and the prices of outputs such as gasoline and diesel. Moneta Markets foreign exchange believes that when refined product supply is tight, wider crack spreads can lift refining earnings; however, if crude oil becomes more expensive without being passed through to the refined product side at the same time, it may instead squeeze profits, so upstream and downstream companies do not react to oil prices in the same way.
The report also presents the different performances of oil and gas producers, integrated energy companies, and transportation companies. This suggests that sector indices can mask differences in business structure. Companies classified under the energy sector may separately bear risks related to commodity prices, equipment operations, freight capacity, or financing costs. When comparing companies, one should first confirm the source of revenue, and then discuss the common factors behind market gains and losses.
Within the same quarter, improved upstream profits and wider downstream spreads can coexist, but that will not make the cost risks of all types of companies disappear at the same time. Entering the next quarter, Moneta Markets foreign exchange analysis says it is necessary to test whether high processing profits can continue, and how facility maintenance and end-user demand will change the refined product balance. Quarterly stock price returns already include part of the earnings expectations and cannot be directly extrapolated as future growth rates. Capacity recovery, cooling demand, or rising costs may all put previously leading businesses under pressure again.
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