China's three major A-share indices closed higher today. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index stood at 3912.52 points, up 0.59%; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.69%; the ChiNext Index gained 0.51%; and the STAR 50 Index climbed 1.71%. Total turnover in the A-share market reached 1.82 trillion yuan, a slight decline from the previous session's 1.84 trillion yuan. Across the broader market, 2,942 stocks advanced, indicating a mildly positive sentiment. Brokerage and large financial sectors rallied strongly, while non-ferrous metals led the gains.

Today's market action can be understood from two perspectives: trading volume and market structure. In terms of volume, turnover has fallen to around 1.8 trillion yuan, likely approaching a phase of subdued trading activity. This reflects a noticeable reduction in selling pressure, suggesting that sentiment is gradually completing a phase of clearing. From a structural standpoint, the leading sectors today—non-bank financials and non-ferrous metals—share a common trait: they are positioned at relatively low levels. The former had been under capital pressure with low valuations, while the latter has cleaner chip structures and a more straightforward industry logic. The rotation of capital from high-flying sectors toward low-valuation, low-institutional-holding areas indicates that market sentiment is not systematically weakening but rather undergoing structural rebalancing, making the overall market composition more balanced.

Looking ahead, as interim earnings disclosures continue, earnings validation and valuation attractiveness are likely to remain the primary drivers of capital allocation. If turnover can stabilize and recover around the 1.8 trillion yuan level, market sentiment may see further improvement. Meanwhile, external variables such as overseas interest rate trajectories and geopolitical disruptions warrant continued monitoring. In the near term, the market is likely to experience structural rotations.

Today, the securities sector rallied strongly, with the Securities ETF (512880) climbing 2.72%. On the news front, as of August 26, 21 listed brokerages have published their interim reports. According to industry association data, the securities industry achieved a net profit of 138.7 billion yuan in the first half, up 22.9% year-on-year. Additionally, market turnover may have hit a phase low, with limited downside ahead. The period of highest frequency operational pressure on brokerage businesses such as brokerage commissions and margin financing may be passing. As a bellwether of the capital markets, the securities sector's performance is closely tied to market activity, policy direction, and reform deepening. In recent years, a series of measures to invigorate the capital markets have been implemented, benefiting multiple business lines of brokerages. The Sci-Tech innovation board reforms have lowered listing thresholds for hard-tech companies, benefiting investment banking and equity investment. The supporting rules for public funds have been rolled out intensively, guiding long-term equity capital from residents and enhancing brokerages' wealth management revenue. As capital market reforms continue to advance, the long-term allocation value of the securities industry is becoming increasingly prominent. Currently, the valuation and earnings of the securities sector remain significantly mismatched. As of August 26, the PB ratio of the securities company index was only 1.25 times, sitting at the 13.21% percentile of the past decade. In a strategy of returning to balanced allocation, the low institutional holdings and low valuations of the non-bank sector present clear appeal. With capital continuously flowing into the securities sector, interested investors may consider the Securities ETF (512880).

Today, the non-ferrous metals sector led gains, at one point surging more than 4% intraday. The Mining ETF (561330) rose 2.38%, while the Non-Ferrous Metals ETF (159881) gained 2.17%. The drivers behind the non-ferrous metals rally come from both macroeconomic and fundamental factors. On the macro front, suppressing factors are easing. Earlier tightening of liquidity, a stronger dollar, and expectations of Fed rate hikes had weighed on the metals sector, even causing a divergence between commodity prices and stock prices. With US inflation data coming in significantly below expectations, an increasing number of institutions believe the "rate hike trade" may be over. The prevailing market expectation is now "no hikes, no cuts" within the year. The biggest macro overhang on the sector is being removed. On today's session, the oil risk premium continued to unwind, and falling US Treasury yields drove a recovery in risk assets, with non-ferrous metals benefiting relatively. The fundamental backdrop for the non-ferrous metals sector remains solid. Taking copper as an example, in the first half of this year, copper mine supply decreased by about 300,000 tons while demand increased by about 400,000 tons, creating a supply-demand gap of roughly 5%. Upstream copper mine and blister copper inventories have been significantly drawn down. Global inventory distribution is uneven, with copper inventories outside the US remaining at low levels, providing clear support to prices. If US restocking continues and upstream replenishment follows, copper prices could see further upside and may hit new highs within the year. This week, copper prices have been steadily strengthening. In precious metals, gold appears to have exited its bottom range near $4,000 per ounce. Despite US Treasury yields remaining at elevated levels, market concerns over US fiscal sustainability and dollar credit are continuously enhancing gold's appeal. Recently, the US Treasury announced it would at least double the size of its buyback program for 10- to 30-year Treasury bonds to support liquidity. Although the Treasury emphasized that buybacks are fundamentally different from QE, the market broadly interprets "expanding bond purchases to lower long-end yields" as a quasi-easing signal. More importantly, this signals that the US Treasury may continue to intervene in the bond market. The chain of "fiscal deficit—bond market intervention—dollar credit" could become a new pricing variable for gold. Furthermore, the global central bank gold-buying trend continues—beyond the People's Bank of China's consecutive increases, the Bank of Korea has restarted physical gold purchases after a 13-year hiatus. The long-term allocation logic for gold is gradually forming a new consensus. On a medium-term horizon, the AI industry trend continues to strengthen demand for metals such as copper and tin. The non-ferrous metals sector is currently driven by two parallel logics: "traditional metals" anchored in geopolitics, interest rates, and resource security, and "AI metals" anchored in computing power expansion and strategic controls. The industry logic of "volume and price rising together" for resource products is worth continuous tracking. Interested investors may look at the Mining ETF (561330), which focuses on upstream resources, and the broader-coverage Non-Ferrous Metals ETF (159881).

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