According to data compiled by the Midland Commercial Property Research Department from the Land Registry, Hong Kong's commercial property sale and purchase registrations totaled 3,963 cases in the first three quarters of 2026, up about 16.5% year-on-year, continuing to set a new high for the same period in nearly five years. The total registered value reached approximately HK$40.57 billion, with the year-on-year decline narrowing sharply to 0.2%, already close to the level of the same period last year.

Sammy Po, Chief Executive of Midland Realty and Midland Commercial Property, described the trend of the commercial property market as "gradually improving," noting that transaction volumes continued to stabilize and cumulative registered value was gradually catching up to the same period last year, reflecting strengthened absorption capacity. However, he noted that the pace of recovery still varies across sectors, and banks remain conservative in approving mortgages for commercial properties, so it will still take time for market confidence to fully recover. He maintained his forecast of about 5,200 commercial property sale and purchase registrations for the full year, an increase of about 15% year-on-year.

For September 2026 alone, Hong Kong's commercial property sale and purchase registrations recorded 469 cases, rebounding 14.4% month-on-month, while registered value was approximately HK$4.37 billion, down 4.3% month-on-month. Commercial property sale and purchase registrations have remained at 400 cases or more per month for seven consecutive months. Sammy Po pointed out that second-hand properties accounted for about 90% of total registrations in September, serving as the main support for transactions that month and reflecting that the market is not primarily driven by the launch of new first-hand projects. He believes that as some owners increase their room for negotiation, buyers will find it easier to identify properties that meet their budget and yield requirements, helping to consolidate the foundation for transactions.

Offices continued to be the only category among the three major commercial property sectors to record cumulative growth in both volume and value. In the first three quarters, office sale and purchase registrations totaled 1,015 cases, up 19% year-on-year, the largest increase among the three major sectors. Registered value reached approximately HK$20.02 billion, up 15.6% year-on-year. For September alone, office sale and purchase registrations recorded 119 cases, down 16.2% month-on-month, while registered value was approximately HK$2.01 billion, down 18.2% month-on-month. Sammy Po noted that he remains optimistic about leasing and purchasing demand for offices in core districts. Although single-month transactions have recently declined, first three-quarter registrations and value still rose year-on-year, indicating that market absorption capacity has improved compared with last year, and it would be inappropriate to judge an overall weakening trend based on short-term fluctuations alone.

In September, the vacancy rate of Grade A office buildings in the benchmark category fell further to 8.5%, a new low since December 2020. Vacancy rates in traditional core business districts remained at low levels, while Grade A office vacancy rates in emerging business districts such as East Kowloon, Kwai Chung, and Sha Tin also declined, recording 16.1%, 2.3%, and 2.2% respectively, reflecting continued growth in office demand as enterprises gradually absorb floor space in these districts. On the other hand, the Grade A office price index has fallen about 4.5% year-to-date, while the rental index rose about 1.7% over the same period. Sammy Po believes that declining vacancy rates and recovering rents help improve the rental return conditions for offices and also provide support for long-term buyers assessing entry opportunities, but whether prices can fully stabilize still depends on absorption capacity and the financial industry environment.

In the retail property market, sale and purchase registrations in September recorded 110 cases, rebounding 12.2% month-on-month, while registered value was approximately HK$1.30 billion, surging 62.3% month-on-month and hitting a one-year high. Cumulatively for the first three quarters, retail property sale and purchase registrations recorded 926 cases, up 14.3% year-on-year, while registered value was approximately HK$9.68 billion, down 21.4% year-on-year. Sammy Po stated that the simultaneous rebound in retail property volume and value in September brought a positive signal to the market. Particularly noteworthy is that single-month registered value for retail properties rose to a one-year high, mainly because there were five retail property sale and purchase registrations worth more than HK$50 million to HK$100 million in September, the most in a single month since November 2025, reflecting that mid-to-high-value properties are gradually gaining buyer acceptance. He believes that at this stage buyers will still focus on the actual rental income of retail properties, tenant stability, and consumer demand in the location, rather than simply speculating on a price rebound. Retail properties located in core districts with well-developed transportation infrastructure, best positioned to benefit from tourism, and with a solid rental foundation are expected to be more easily absorbed. If owners adopt market-oriented pricing, it will help facilitate transactions.

In the industrial building market, sale and purchase registrations in September recorded 240 cases, up 41.2% month-on-month, the largest increase in case numbers among the three major sectors, while registered value was approximately HK$1.06 billion, down 19.0% month-on-month. Cumulatively for the first three quarters, industrial building sale and purchase registrations recorded 2,022 cases, up 16.2% year-on-year, continuing to be the most active category among the three major commercial property sectors. Registered value was approximately HK$10.87 billion, down 1.5% year-on-year. Sammy Po noted that the significant increase in single-month industrial building registrations alongside a decline in value reflected that transactions that month were skewed toward lower-priced properties. Cumulative registrations in the first three quarters maintained notable growth, while cumulative registered value has moved closer to the level of the same period last year, indicating that the market's absorption foundation is gradually improving. The industrial building vacancy rate fell to 4.2%, a new low since November 2024. Sammy Po believes that the decline in vacancy rates reflects improved absorption of industrial floor space, providing support for both the leasing and sale markets for industrial buildings. Industrial and warehouse properties with practical layouts, convenient transportation and logistics infrastructure, and reasonable pricing are expected to continue attracting attention from users and investors.

Looking ahead, Sammy Po believes that commercial property market transactions are gradually warming up and rental performance has also improved, with overall market conditions "gradually improving." The Federal Reserve restarted rate hikes in September, but the likelihood of further increases is difficult to predict. However, the market generally believes that Hong Kong mortgage rates may not necessarily rise in tandem. More importantly, since banks have been consistently prudent in approving mortgages for non-residential properties, financing conditions in the commercial property market were already relatively tight, so the direct impact of this rate hike on the market is expected to be relatively limited. Nevertheless, it is still necessary to watch whether the rising appeal of fixed-rate products may attract some capital inflows, putting pressure on commercial property investment from capital diversion. Taking into account both transaction and leasing performance, Sammy Po maintained his forecast of about 5,200 commercial property sale and purchase registrations for the full year, expected to increase about 15% year-on-year. In the fourth quarter, the market is expected to mainly absorb properties with rental support, reasonable returns, and attractive pricing. Among them, quality offices in core locations, retail properties in mature residential districts, and industrial buildings with actual usage demand are expected to remain key areas of buyer focus.