During Tuesday's North American trading session, gold prices remained choppy as bulls failed to conquer the $4,700 mark, with the precious metal drifting back below this significant psychological level.
Mixed US economic data and growing expectations that the US-Iran conflict could be resolved have weighed on sentiment. Spot gold was last trading at $4,653.47 per ounce, up a marginal 0.04% on the day.
Overbought Signals And Middle East Headlines Pressure Bullion
Gold has entered a consolidation phase, with upside momentum fading and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moving into overbought territory. Geopolitical headlines remain the key driver of price action.
According to Axios, two US officials confirmed that President Trump announced the US Navy has successfully cleared shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz. This development has created strong resistance around the $4,700 level, capping further upside for the yellow metal.
On the data front, US housing figures showed modest improvement. The four-week average of ADP employment changes rose to 11,750, up from the prior reading of 9,500. July building permits increased 4.3% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 1.433 million units, reversing June's 2.6% decline but still missing the 5% market expectation.
Meanwhile, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index came in below expectations at 90.2, although August data indicated slight improvements in how households view business conditions and the labor market.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins struck a hawkish tone, emphasizing that inflation remains too high and expressing concerns about price stability. She noted that the labor market is near full employment and that economic growth is tracking close to its trend rate.
According to PrimeTerminal data, money markets remain uncertain about a potential Fed rate hike in September, with markets pricing in roughly a 43% probability of a 25-basis-point increase and a 57% chance of holding rates steady.
Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, along with remarks from newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole global central bank symposium. Additional US data on durable goods orders, GDP, and initial jobless claims are also on the calendar.
Technical Outlook: Gold Meets Wall At $4,700
Gold has now traded sideways for a second consecutive session, with bulls unable to overcome the $4,700 hurdle, pushing prices back toward the $4,650 zone. The RSI sits above the overbought threshold of 70 and is now turning lower.
Should the RSI slip below 70, spot gold could test key support levels. The first support sits at $4,600, followed by the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,519. Below that lies the $4,500 psychological level, with the 100-day moving average at $4,379 as a further downside target.
To resume the uptrend, gold must reclaim the $4,700 level. A decisive break above this barrier could open the door toward the May 7 high of $4,764, followed by the $4,800 mark, with the next upside objective targeting $5,000.