Goldman Sachs has released a research report stating that it has lowered its target price for AIA (01299) by 1%, from HK$96 to HK$95, while reiterating its "Buy" rating.

The investment bank expects that due to the high base effect from previous promotional activities in Hong Kong, mainland China, and Thailand, AIA's value of new business (VONB) for the third quarter of 2026 will decline by 3% year-on-year on a constant currency basis.

The bank believes that recent investor concerns over offshore tax-related news could lead to a slowdown in Chinese consumer demand, which has weighed on the company's share price and presented investors with a highly attractive buying opportunity, as the company's underlying structural growth trends remain solid.

Despite the temporary decline in the third quarter, the bank expects the compound annual growth rate in key markets to remain strong over the next two years, with value of new business returning to double-digit growth in the fourth quarter of 2026 and the 2027 fiscal year.