ASML Holding is scheduled to report results for the third quarter on Wednesday. Here is what to know:
SALES FORECAST: The Dutch semiconductor-equipment maker is expected to post sales of 11.71 billion euros ($13.12 billion), according to Visible Alpha. The forecast is within company guidance of 11 billion euros to 12 billion euros and well above sales of 7.52 billion euros that ASML reported a year earlier.
GROSS PROFIT FORECAST: Gross profit--a closely watched metric for companies operating in the semiconductor industry--should come in at 6.56 billion euros, according to Visible Alpha, above 3.88 billion euros that ASML reported a year earlier. ASML's gross margin is expected to have edged up to nearly 56% from 51.6%, within company guidance of 55% to 57%.
NET PROFIT FORECAST: Net profit should amount to 4.17 billion euros compared to nearly 2.13 billion euros a year earlier.
ASML's share price has nearly doubled over the past 12 months on a wave of investor fervor around artificial intelligence and expectations that chips and semiconductor-making tools will remain in high demand for years to come. ASML is Europe's most valuable listed company, flying above names such as Wegovy maker Novo Nordisk and luxury group LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton.
WHAT TO WATCH:
--GUIDANCE: ASML lifted its annual sales forecasts twice this year and is projecting 2026 sales between 43 billion and 45 billion euros. Meanwhile, its gross margin is expected between 54% and 56%. JPMorgan's Sandeep Deshpande wrote in a note to clients that ASML could raise its 2026 guidance slightly, citing the potential for stronger shipments of its deep ultraviolet lithography tools.
Jefferies analysts wrote in a separate note that ASML could guide for sales at around 15 billion euros and a gross margin of about 57% in the fourth quarter, forecasts they say could take ASML's 2026 sales and gross margin close to the high-end of current guidance ranges. They attribute the potential improvement to growing shipments of machines to logic customers in China and a further strengthening of revenue from software upgrades that ASML makes from machines that are already operating at customer facilities.
--DEMAND: The race to build out AI infrastructure has ushered in a scramble for the sophisticated chips needed to power data centers, with ASML reaping the benefits as chip makers need more of its machines to satisfy demand. "Overall, we believe that the company will give a positive message on demand as well as on its ability to supply the demand," JPMorgan's Deshpande said.
In a bid to cash in on that tightness, ASML is seeking to increase production of its deep ultraviolet lithography tools as well as its more advanced extreme ultraviolet systems by 30% in 2027 and another 30% in 2028. UBS analysts wrote in a research note that the company could lift those targets above 30%.
-- PRICING: ASML Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen in July alluded to the possibility of price increases, saying that a tight chip market gave ASML more negotiating power. UBS analysts say they expect customer negotiations to support further price increases across ASML's lineup of deep ultraviolet and extreme ultraviolet machines.